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3/27/2017

  • 3/27/2017

    Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Gold prices are higher and hit a four-week high in overnight trading. Prices are in a fledgling, steep uptrend on the daily bar chart.

    The marketplace is still reacting to the news late Friday that the U.S. House of Representatives Republicans pulled their bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. That was a major defeat for the first foray into new legislation from the Trump Administration, and it now calls into question what Trump can actually get accomplished regarding his pro-business campaign promises. That’s bearish for world stock markets and bullish for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries. Most agree the “Trump rally” that began in many world stock markets in early November has now petered out.

    In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business climate index rose to 112.3 in March, which was above expectations of 111.0. The March number was the highest in nearly six years.

    The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hitting a 4.5-month low overnight. The greenback bears have downside technical momentum as prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hovering not far above last week’s four-month low. Growing world oil supplies, especially ramped up U.S. shale-oil production, are keeping crude oil prices tamped down.

    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

     

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading Monday. The bears have downside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,337.50 and then at Friday’s high of 2,352.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,317.75 and then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have downside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 5,360.25 and then at Friday’s high of 5,395.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the March low of 5,315.00 and then at 5,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

     

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high overnight. Bulls have upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
    Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 3/32 and then at the January high of 152 17/32.

    Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 151 even and then at the overnight low of 150 27/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.29.5 and then at the February high of 125.04.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.20.0 and then at the overnight low of 124.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

     

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower and hit a 4.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have good downside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 99.335 and then at 99.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 98.865 and then at 98.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

     

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hovering near last week’s four-month low. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $48.28 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $47.34 and then at last week’s low of $47.01. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

     

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grain markets. Traders are awaiting this Friday’s USDA planting intentions report. That is one of the most important USDA grain reports of the year.

     

    *  Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

     

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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