Wednesday, August 2
World stock markets were mixed overnight. However,technology shares worldwide were supported by upbeatearnings released Tuesday afternoon from technology leaderApple. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openingswhen the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are moderately lower in pre-U.S.-session tradingtoday. The market is seeing some profit taking from recentgains and is pressured a bit as the U.S. dollar hasstabilized at mid-week, after its recent sell off.
In overnight news, India’s central bank lowered its keyinterest rate by 0.25%, to 6.0%. The move was notunexpected.
The Euro zone producer price index was reported down 0.1% inJune from May, and was up 2.5%, year-on-year. Those numberswere in line with market expectations.
The important “outside markets” early Wednesday find theU.S. dollar index slightly lower. The index is trying tostabilize at mid-week after hitting a 13-month low Monday.Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are near steady andtrading just above $49.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a two-
month high Tuesday and remain in an uptrend on the dailychart.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes theweekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP nationalemployment report, the ISM New York report on business andthe weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
The big U.S. data point of the week is the monthlyemployment situation report released by the Labor Departmenton Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component ofthat report is forecast to show a rise of 180,000 workers.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up inearly U.S. trading and just below last week’s contract andrecord high. The bulls have the solid overall near-termtechnical advantage and there are no strong chart clues thata market top is close at hand. The shorter-term movingaverages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day isabove the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at thecontract high of 2,480.50 and then at 2,490.00. Buy stopslikely reside just above those levels. Downside support foractive traders today is located at this week’s low of2,465.25 and then at last week’s low of 2,457.00. Sell stopsare likely located just below those levels.
Nasdaq index September futures: Prices are solidly higher inearly U.S. trading today. The bulls have the firm overallnear-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day movingaverage is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) areneutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance isseen at the overnight high of 5,947.50 and then at 5,975.00.Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On thedownside, short-term support is seen at 5,900.00 and then atthis week’s low of 5,870.25. Sell stops are likely locatedjust below those levels.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S.trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technicaladvantage but trading has been choppy recently. Shorter-termmoving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is abovethe 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of153 30/32 and then at this week’s high of 154 3/32. Buystops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-termsupport lies at 153 10/32 and then at 153 even. Sell stopslikely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technicaladvantage but trading has turned choppy. Shorter-termmoving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is abovethe 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at this week’s high of 126.08.0 andthen at 126.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above thoselevels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.00.0 andthen at 125.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below thoselevels.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in earlyU.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a 13-month low. Bears havethe solid overall near-term technical advantage. Theshorter-term moving averages for the dollar index arebearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-termoscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearishearly today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technicalresistance at 93.000 and then at this week’s high of 93.385.Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 92.635and then at 92.500.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in earlyU.S. trading. Prices have been trending higher for sixweeks. Look for buy stops to reside just above technicalresistance at $50.00 and then at this week’s high of $50.43.Look for sell stops just below technical support at thisweek’s low of $48.37 and then at $48.00.
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight on a shortcovering and technical bounce following recent strongselling pressure. The weather market that had played outover the past few weeks has now fizzled out. That’s bearish.The damage that has occurred to the crops over the past fewweeks has now been factored into grain prices. Bulls needsome fresh, positive news to fuel more upside price action.
* Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.
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