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8/16/2017

  • 8/16/2017

    The STOCK INDEXES 8/16/2017

    The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Tuesday as itextended the rally off last Friday’s low. The mid-range close sets thestage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session beginstrading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling thatsideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extendsthe aforementioned rally, July’s high crossing at 5995.75 is the nextupside target. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing at 5761.00confirmed that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance isJuly’s high crossing at 5995.75. Second resistance is unknown. Firstsupport is last Friday’s low crossing at 5761.00. Second support is the62% retracement level of July’s rally crossing at 5726.15.

    The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extendsthe rally off last Friday’s low. The low-range close sets the stage fora steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling thatsideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-

    day moving average crossing at 2467.90 would confirm that a short-termlow has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August’s high,the 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 2427.42is the next downside target. First resistance is August’s high crossingat 2487.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 38%retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 2427.42. Secondsupport is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossingat 2408.87.

    The Dow closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally offlast Friday’s low. Stocks struggled for gains today as investors scaledback buying after two straight sessions of advances amid better-then-

    expected retail sales data and abatement of tensions between the U.S.and North Korea. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady openingwhen Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSIare turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher pricesare possible near-term. If the Dow resumes this year’s rally intouncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closesbelow the 20-day moving average crossing at 21,861.62 would confirm thata short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’shigh crossing at 22,179.11. Second resistance is unknown. First supportis the 20-day moving average crossing at 21,861.62. Second support isthe reaction low crossing at 21,496.13.

    INTEREST RATES

    September T-bonds closed down 24/32’s at 154-13. September T-bondsclosed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July’slow. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening whenWednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areoverbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-

    term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 154-03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off July’s low, the reaction highcrossing at 156-05 is the next upside target. First resistance is thereaction high crossing at 156-05. Second resistance is June’s highcrossing at 157-08. First support is the reaction low crossing at 152-

    03. Second support is July’s low crossing at 151-18.

    September T-notes closed down 130/32’s at 126-045. September T-notesclosed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at126.046 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-rangeclose sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’snight session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought andare turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower pricesare possible near-term possible near-term. If September extends therally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at 127.080 is the next upsidetarget. First resistance the reaction high crossing at 126.290. Secondresistance is June’s high crossing at 127.080. First support is thereaction low crossing at 125.155. Second support is July’s low crossingat 124.255.

    ENERGY MARKETS

    September crude oil closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidatessome of the decline off last Thursday’s high. The high-range close setsthe stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night sessionbegins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling thatsideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extendsthe aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.40 is thenext downside target. Closes above Monday’s high crossing at 49.16 wouldtemper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reactionhigh crossing at 50.70. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at52.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 46.63.Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.40.

    September heating oil closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close setsthe stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night tradingsession begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearishsignaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today’sclose below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.07 confirms that ashort-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’slow, April’s high crossing at 170.05 is the next upside target. Firstresistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 167.97. Second resistanceis April’s high crossing at 170.05 is the next upside target. Firstsupport is today’s low crossing at 158.29. Second support is the 50-daymoving average crossing at 151.78.

    September unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it reboundsoff the 38% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at156.83. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower openingwhen Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSIare neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or isnear. If September extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracementlevel of the June-August-rally crossing at 153.22 is the next downsidetarget. Closse above the 10-day moving average crossing at 161.43 wouldconfirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance isAugust’s high crossing at 168.46. Second resistance is April’s highcrossing at 172.88. First support is the 38% retracement level of theJune-August-rally crossing at 156.83. Second support is the 50%retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 153.22.

    September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidatessome of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for asteady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral tobearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closesbelow the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.874 would temper the near-

    term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off August’s low,July’s high crossing at 3.101 is the next upside target. Firstresistance is Monday’s high crossing at 3.018. Second resistance isJuly’s high crossing at 3.101. First support is the 75% retracementlevel of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 2.706. Second support is the87% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 2.563.

    CURRENCIES

    The September Dollar closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20-daymoving average crossing at 93.42 confirming that a short-term low hasbeen posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higheropening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics andthe RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higherprices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally,the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.09 is the next upside target.If September renews the decline off April’s high, weekly supportcrossing at 91.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the50-day moving average crossing at 95.09. Second resistance is July’shigh crossing at 96.26. First support is August’s low crossing at 92.39.Second support is weekly support crossing at 91.88.

    The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 117.69 confirming that a short-term top has beenposted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower openingwhen Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSIhave turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower pricesare possible near-term. If September extends today’s decline, the 50-daymoving average crossing at 115.21 is the next downside target. IfSeptember renews the rally off April’s low, the December-2014 gap on theweekly continuation chart crossing at 120.07 is the next upside target.First resistance is August’s high crossing at 119.39. Second resistanceis the December-2014 gap on the weekly continuation chart crossing at120.07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 116.45. Secondsupport is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.12.

    The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday and below the 50-daymoving average crossing at 1.2962 are it renewed this month’s decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening whenWednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areoversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lowerprices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s decline, thereaction low crossing at 1.2839 is the next downside target. Closesabove the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3072 would temper thenear-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August’s high crossing at1.3287. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1.3546. Firstsupport is the reaction low crossing at 1.2839. Second support is June’slow crossing at 1.2625.

    The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range closesets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s nightsession begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral tobearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.If September resumes the decline off July’s high, the 62% retracementlevel of the May-July-rally crossing at 1.0173 is the next downsidetarget. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0415 areneeded to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Firstresistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0415. Secondresistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0519. First support islast Tuesday’s low crossing at 1.0258. Second support is the 62%retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at 1.0173.

    The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday and below the 25%retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at 78.63. The mid-rangeclose sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’snight session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold butremain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices arepossible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high,the 38% retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at 76.65 is thenext downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at79.44 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance isJuly’s high crossing at 80.62. Second resistance is the June-2015 highcrossing at 81.86. First support is today’s low crossing at 78.29.Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-rallycrossing at 76.65.

    The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range closesets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the Wednesday’s nightsession begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral tobearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9056 would confirmthat a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rallyoff July’s low, June’s high crossing at 0.9228 is the next upsidetarget. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 0.9228. Secondresistance is April’s high crossing at 0.9302. First support is the 20-

    day moving average crossing at 0.9056. Second support is the 50-daymoving average crossing at 0.9008.

    PRECIOUS METALS

    December gold posted its largest one-day loss in nearly six weeks due toprofit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off July’slow. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower openingwhen Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSIare turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might bein or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at1270.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If Decemberresumes the rally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at 1305.50 is thenext upside target. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 1305.50.Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 1307.00. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at 1270.60. Second support is thereaction low crossing at 1249.40.

    September silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of therally off July’s low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady tolower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochasticsand the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signalingthat sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the20-day moving average crossing at 16.624 would confirm that a short-termtop has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July’s low, thereaction high crossing at 17.405 is the next upside target. Firstresistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 17.240. Second resistanceis the reaction high crossing at 17.405. First support is the reactionlow crossing at 16.095. Second support is July’s low crossing at 15.145.

    September copper closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets thestage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night sessionbegins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalingthat sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the20-day moving average crossing at 285.76 would confirm that a short-termtop has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May’s low, the62% retracement level of the 2013-2016-decline crossing at 303.13 is thenext upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossingat 295.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2013-

    2016-decline crossing at 303.13. First support is the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 285.76. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 272.86.

    GRAINS

    December Corn closed down 7 1/4-cents at 3.69. December corn closedlower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July’s high. Today’s selloff was triggered by Monday’s surprising increase in the good/excellentrating by 2%, which now stands at 62% good/excellent. The low-rangeclose sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’snight session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral tobearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.If December extends the decline off July’s high, last September’s lowcrossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-

    day moving average crossing at 3.89 3/4 are needed to confirm that ashort-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day movingaverage crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction highcrossing at 4.06 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 3.67 1/2.Second support is last September’s low crossing at 3.65 1/2.

    December wheat closed down 12 1/2-cents at 4.55 1/4. December wheatclosed lower on Tuesday and spiked below April’s low crossing at 4.543/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower openingwhen Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSIare oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways tolower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline offJuly’s high, last December’s low crossing at 4.53 is the next downsidetarget. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.93 3/4would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance isthe 10-day moving average crossing at 4.77 1/2. Second resistance is the20-day moving average crossing at 4.93 3/4. First support is today’s lowcrossing at 4.54 1/4. Second support is last December’s low crossing at4.53.

    December Kansas City Wheat closed down 10 1/4-cents at 4.54. DecemberKansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline offJuly’s high and spiked below April’s low crossing at 4.53 3/4. The high-

    range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearishsignaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. IfDecember extends the aforementioned decline, psychological supportcrossing at 4.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-daymoving average crossing at 4.95 1/2 would confirm that a short-term lowhas been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossingat 4.80 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at4.95 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.52 1/4. Secondsupport is psychological support crossing at 4.50.

    November soybeans closed down 13 1/4-cents at 9.25. November soybeansclosed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July’s high. Thelow-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening whenWednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areoversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lowerprices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline offJuly’s high, June’s low crossing at 9.07 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.81 would confirmthat a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 9.81. Second resistance is the reaction highcrossing at 10.35 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of theJune-July-rally crossing at 9.25. Second support is June’s low crossingat 9.07.

    December soybean meal closed down $3.40 at 299.30. December soybean mealclosed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off July’s high. Thelow-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening whenWednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areoversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lowerprices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline offJuly’s high, June’s low crossing at 295.40 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.70 would confirmthat a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day movingaverage crossing at 308.60. Second resistance is the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 318.70. First support today’s low crossing at298.80. Second support is June’s low crossing at 295.40.

    December soybean oil closed down 66-pts. at 33.11. December soybean oilclosed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July’s high. Thelow-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening whenWednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI arebecoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sidewaysto lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the declineoff July’s high, July’s low crossing at 32.48 is the next downsidetarget. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.18 wouldtemper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is lastThursday’s high crossing at 35.15. Second resistance is July’s highcrossing at 35.58. First support is July’s low crossing at 32.48. Secondsupport is the reaction low crossing at 31.91.

    LIVESTOCK

    October hogs closed up $1.35 at $70.53. October hogs closed higher onTuesday as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range closesets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s sessionbegins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remainneutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possiblenear-term. If October extends the rally off April’s low, July’s highcrossing at 72.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-daymoving average crossing at 67.41 would temper the near-term bullishoutlook. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 70.90. Secondresistance is July’s high crossing at 72.25. First support is August’slow crossing at 64.12. Second support is April’s low crossing at 62.42.

    October cattle closed up $2.45 at 109.05. October cattle posted a keyreversal up on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June’shigh. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher openingwhen Wednesday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areoversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways tohigher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 112.39 would confirm that a short-term low has beenposted. If October extends the decline off July’s high, April’s lowcrossing at 104.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the10-day moving average crossing at 110.30. Second resistance is the 20-

    day moving average crossing at 112.39. First support is today’s lowcrossing at 105.75. Second support is April’s low crossing at 104.97.

    October Feeder cattle closed up $3.98 at $146.30. October Feeder cattleclosed sharply higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high-rangeclose sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’ssession begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral tobullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.01 would confirmthat a low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July’shigh, June’s low crossing at 138.92 is the next downside target. Firstresistance is August’s high crossing at 151.00. Second resistance isJuly’s high crossing at 154.20. First support is June’s low crossing at138.92. Second support is April’s low crossing at 129.98.

    FOOD & FIBER

    December coffee closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends thismonth’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady tolower opening on Wednesday. Closes below the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 13.51 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sidewaysto lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends theaforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 12.94 is the nextdownside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at14.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

    December cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month’sdecline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remainneutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possiblenear-term. If December extends the decline off July’s high, July’s lowcrossing at 18.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-daymoving average crossing at 20.07 would confirm that a short-term low hasbeen posted.

    October sugar closed lower on Tuesday and the low-range close set thestage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and theRSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sidewaysto lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month’sdecline, June’s low crossing at 12.74 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.10 would confirmthat a short-term low has been posted.

    October cotton gapped down and closed lower on Tuesday as it extendsthis month’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady tolower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral tobearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.If October extends the aforementioned decline, July’s low crossing at66.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day movingaverage crossing at 70.39 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

    *  Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

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