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8/14/2017

  • 8/14/2017

    The Futures Indicis

     

    The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as all three indexesclosed lower for three consecutive sessions in a row for the first timesince mid April amid a persistent war of words between the U.S. andNorth Korea. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and theRSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices arepossible near-term. Today’s close below the reaction low crossing at5844.75 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. Today’s closebelow the 50-day moving average crossing at 5813.31 opens the door foradditional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off July’slow to new contract highs, upside targets will be hard to project. Firstresistance is July’s high crossing at 5995.75. Second resistance isunknown. First support is today’s low crossing at 5783.25. Secondsupport is the reaction low crossing at 5641.25.

    The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday and below thereaction low crossing at 2458.00 confirming that a short-term top hasbeen posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and theRSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices arepossible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at2445.84 would open the door for a possible test of July’s low crossingat 2404.00 later this month. If September renews this year’s rally intouncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Firstresistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 2487.50. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2413.50. Secondsupport is July’s low crossing at 2404.00.

    The Dow gapped down and closed lower for the third day in a row onThursday as it extended this week’s decline due to increased tensionsbetween North Korea and the United States. The mid-range close sets thestage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling thatsideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-daymoving average crossing at 21,815.51 would confirm that a short-term tophas been posted. If the Dow extends this year’s rally into unchartedterritory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance isTuesday’s high crossing at 22,179.11. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21,815.51. Secondsupport is the reaction low crossing at 21,496.13.

     

     

    INTEREST RATES

    September T-bonds closed up 25/32’s at 155-16. September T-bonds closedhigher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-

    range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’snight session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turnedneutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possiblenear-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the reactionhigh crossing at 156-05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-

    day moving average crossing at 153-25 would confirm that a short-termtop has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at156-05. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 157-08. Firstsupport is the reaction low crossing at 152-03. Second support is July’slow crossing at 151-18.

    September T-notes closed up 95/32’s at 126-205. September T-notes closedhigher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-

    range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’snight session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turningneutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possiblenear-term possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’slow, the reaction high crossing at 126.290 is the next upside target.Closes below the reaction low crossing at 125.155 would confirm that ashort-term top has been posted. First resistance the reaction highcrossing at 126.290. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at127.080. First support is July’s low crossing at 124.255. Second supportis the 50% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at124.209.

     

     

    ENERGY MARKETS

     

    September crude oil posted a key reversal down and closed lower onThursday signaling a possible end to the trading range of the past two-

    weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower openingwhen Friday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutralto bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-

    term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.28 wouldconfirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes therally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at 52.38 is the next upsidetarget. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.70. Secondresistance is May’s high crossing at 52.38. First support is the 20-daymoving average crossing at 48.28. Second support is the 50-day movingaverage crossing at 46.64.

    September heating oil posted a downside reversal with Thursday’s low-

    range close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening when Friday’s night trading session begins. Stochastics and theRSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.56 are needed toconfirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends therally off June’s low, April’s high crossing at 170.05 is the next upsidetarget. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 167.97. Secondresistance is April’s high crossing at 170.05 is the next upside target.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.56. Secondsupport is the 50-day moving average crossing at 151.09.

    September unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday and posted a downsidereversal. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and theRSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be inor is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.88are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. IfSeptember resumes the rally off June’s low, April’s high crossing at172.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’shigh crossing at 168.46. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at172.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.88.Second support is the 50-day crossing at 152.34.

    September Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and abovethe 50-day moving average crossing at 2.957 confirming that a short-termlow has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady tohigher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochasticsand the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higherprices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off lastFriday’s low, July’s high crossing at 3.101 is the next upside target.Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.842 would temperthe near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today’s highcrossing at 2.995. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 3.101.First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rallycrossing at 2.706. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the2016-2017-rally crossing at 2.563.

     

     

    CURRENCIES

     

    The September Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close setsthe stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night sessionbegins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalingthat a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 93.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term lowhas been posted. If September renews the decline off April’s high,weekly support crossing at 91.88 is the next downside target. Firstresistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.63. Secondresistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.27. First supportis last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.39. Second support is weeklysupport crossing at 91.88.

    The September Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some ofthe decline off August’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for asteady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-

    term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 117.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has beenposted. If September renews the rally off April’s low, the December-2014gap on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.07 is the nextupside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 119.39.Second resistance is the December-2014 gap on the weekly continuationchart crossing at 120.07. First support is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 117.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossingat 114.92.

    The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends thedecline off August’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for asteady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sidewaysto lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day movingaverage crossing at 1.2960 would open the door for a possible test ofJuly’s low crossing at 1.2839. Closes above the 10-day moving averagecrossing at 1.3116 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Firstresistance is August’s high crossing at 1.3287. Second resistance isweekly resistance crossing at 1.3546. First support is the 50-day movingaverage crossing at 1.2960. Second support is July’s low crossing at1.2839.

    The September Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close onThursday as it consolidates some of the decline off July’s high. Thehigh-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening whenFriday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI haveturned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0432 are needed toconfirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes thedecline off July’s high, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-rallycrossing at 1.0173 is the next downside target. First resistance is the20-day moving average crossing at 1.0432. Second resistance is thereaction high crossing at 1.0519. First support is Tuesday’s lowcrossing at 1.0258. Second support is the 62% retracement level of theMay-July-rally crossing at 1.0173.

    The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday and below the 25%retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at 78.63 as it extendsthe decline off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for asteady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearishsignaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. IfSeptember extends the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement levelof the May-July-rally crossing at 77.60 is the next upside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.51 would temperthe near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July’s high crossingat 80.62. Second resistance is the June-2015 high crossing at 81.86.First support is today’s low crossing at 78.57. Second support is the38% retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at 77.60.

    The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as they extend therally off July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steadyto higher opening when the Friday’s night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling thatsideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extendsthe rally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at 0.9228 is the nextupside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9026would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance isthe reaction high crossing at 0.9204. Second resistance is June’s highcrossing at 0.9228. First support is the 20-day moving average crossingat 0.9026. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.8933.

     

     

    PRECIOUS METALS

     

    December gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week’s rallydue to heightened tensions between the United States and North Korea.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening whenFriday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areneutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possiblenear-term. If December extends the rally off July’s low, June’s highcrossing at 1305.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-daymoving average crossing at 1263.70 would confirm that a short-term tophas been posted. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 1305.50.Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 1307.00. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at 1263.70. Second support is thereaction low crossing at 1249.40.

    September silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally offJuly’s low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higheropening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and theRSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices arepossible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, thereaction high crossing at 17.405 is the next upside target. Closes belowthe 20-day moving average crossing at 16.495 would confirm that a short-

    term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at17.240. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.405. Firstsupport is the reaction low crossing at 16.095. Second support is July’slow crossing at 15.145.

    September copper closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The low-

    range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’snight session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought butremain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices arepossible near-term. If September extends the rally off May’s low, the62% retracement level of the 2013-2016-decline crossing at 303.13 is thenext upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at283.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Firstresistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 295.50. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the 2013-2016-decline crossing at 303.13.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 289.80. Secondsupport is the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.01.

     

     

    GRAINS

     

    December Corn closed down 15 1/4-cents at 3.71. December corn closedsharply lower on Thursday as the market was caught off guard by theUSDA’s small cut in the size of this year’s corn crop. The USDA loweredits yield estimate to 169.5 bushel per acre and a crop size of 14.139billion bushels compared to July’s report of 170.7 bushels per acre anda crop size of 14.253 billion bushel. The average trade estimates fortoday’s report numbers pegged the corn yield at 166.2 bu on 83.418 milharvested acres for 13.855 billion bu of production. Harvested acres wasleft unchanged at 83.5 million. US ending carryout at 2.273 bbu comparedto 2.325 bbu July. World ending stocks 7.907 bbu compared to 7.905 July.Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearishsignaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. IfDecember extends the decline off July’s high, last September’s lowcrossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-

    day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4 are needed to temper the near-

    term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 3.90 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at4.06 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 3.70 1/4. Secondsupport is last September’s low crossing at 3.65 1/2.

    December wheat closed down 17-cents at 4.69 3/4. December wheat closedsharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off July’s high. TheUSDA estimated all US wheat production at 1.739 bbu down from 1.760 inJuly. HRW wheat was estimated at 758 mbu, SRW at 306 mbu, and springwheat at 402 mbu compared to July of 423 mbu. World ending stocks 9.725bbu compared to 9.575 bbu July. The average pre-report trade estimateshave all wheat at 1.711 bil bu. The trade was expecting US endingcarryout for all wheat to drop more than the 5 mbu. USDA increasedimports 10 mbu to account for a reduction of 21 mbu of spring wheatproduction. Export bookings have remained strong and this break todayshould be met with end user buying as we are competitive on the worldmarket. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower openingwhen Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI areoversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lowerprices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline offJuly’s high, June’s low crossing at 4.59 1/4 is the next downsidetarget. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.04 wouldconfirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the10-day moving average crossing at 4.88. Second resistance is the 20-daymoving average crossing at 5.04. First support is June’s low crossing at4.59 1/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at 4.54 3/4.

    December Kansas City Wheat closed down 15 1/4-cents at 4.75 3/4.December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday as itextended the decline off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stagefor a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI areoversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lowerprices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioneddecline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at4.72 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 5.06 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low hasbeen posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at4.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at5.06 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-

    rally crossing at 4.72 1/2. Second support is May’s low crossing at4.63.

    November soybeans closed down 33-cents at 9.40. November soybeans closedsharply lower on Thursday following today’s bearish supply-demandreport. The USDA raised yield to 49.4 compared to 48 from July.Harvested acres were unchanged at 88.7 million acres. US ending stockswere estimated at 475 mbu compared to 460 mbu July. The 16-17 US stockswere lowered to 370 mbu from 410. World ending stocks at 3.592 bbucompared to 3.436 bbu July. The average pre-report trade estimatespegged this year’s soybean yield at 47.5 bu, on 88.669 million harvestedacres, for 4.212 billion bushels of production. The low-range close setsthe stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night sessionbegins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutralto bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-

    term. If November extends the decline off July’s high, the 87%retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 9.25 is the nextdownside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.901/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the20-day moving average crossing at 9.90 1/2. Second resistance is thereaction high crossing at 10.35 1/2. First support is the 75%retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 9.41 3/4. Secondsupport is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at9.25.

    December soybean meal closed down $11.20 at 301.70. December soybeanmeal closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline offJuly’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and theRSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sidewaysto lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the declineoff July’s high, June’s low crossing at 295.40 is the next downsidetarget. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.9 wouldconfirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-daymoving average crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is the 20-daymoving average crossing at 322.90. First support today’s low crossing at299.90. Second support is June’s low crossing at 295.40.

    December soybean oil closed down 37-pts. at 34.16. December soybean oilposted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday. The low-rangeclose sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s nightsession begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral tobearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.If December renews the decline off July’s high, the reaction lowcrossing at 33.24 is the next downside target. If December extends thisweek’s rally, July’s high crossing at 35.58 is the next upside target.First resistance is today’s high crossing at 35.15. Second resistance isJuly’s high crossing at 35.58. First support is the 50-day movingaverage crossing at 33.37. Second support is the reaction low crossingat 32.48.

     

    LIVESTOCK

     

    October hogs closed down $0.28 at $67.98. October hogs closed lower onThursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to loweropening when Friday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSIare neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.30 would confirmthat a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the declineoff July’s high, April’s low crossing at 62.42 is the next downsidetarget. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 69.55. Secondresistance is the reaction high crossing at 70.53. First support is lastWednesday’s low crossing at 64.12. Second support is April’s lowcrossing at 62.42.

    October cattle closed down $1.45 at 106.60. October cattle closed loweron Thursday as it extends the decline off June’s high. The low-rangeclose sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s sessionbegins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutralto bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-

    term. If October extends the decline off July’s high, April’s lowcrossing at 104.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-daymoving average crossing at 115.17 would confirm that a short-term lowhas been posted. First resistance is the July 24th gap crossing at116.85. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 119.30. Firstsupport is today’s low crossing at 106.40. Second support is April’s lowcrossing at 104.97.

    October Feeder cattle closed down $0.50 at $140.48. October Feedercattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage fora steady to lower opening when Friday’s session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearishsignaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. IfOctober extends the decline off July’s high, June’s low crossing at138.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 148.31 would confirm that a low has been posted.First resistance is August’s high crossing at 151.00. Second resistanceis July’s high crossing at 154.20. First support is June’s low crossingat 138.92. Second support is April’s low crossing at 129.98.

     

     

    FOOD & FIBER

     

    December coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of therally off June’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady tolower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and areturning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be inor is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.81would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extendsthe rally off June’s low, April’s high crossing at 15.20 is the nextupside target.

    December cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets thestage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSIare neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices arepossible near-term. If December extends the decline off July’s high,July’s low crossing at 18.21 is the next downside target. Closes abovethe 10-day moving average crossing at 20.48 would confirm that a short-

    term low has been posted.

    October sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline offAugust’s high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to loweropening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remainneutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possiblenear-term. If October extends this month’s decline, June’s low crossingat 12.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day movingaverage crossing at 14.23 would confirm that a short-term low has beenposted.

    October cotton closed limit down following a bearish supply-demandreport on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady tolower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and areturning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices arepossible near-term. If October extends today’s decline, July’s lowcrossing at 66.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-daymoving average crossing at 69.90 would temper the near-term bearishoutlook.

    *  Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

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