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6/19/2017

  • 6/19/2017

    Monday, June 19 2017

    The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.

    World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker and hit a four-week low overnight.Gold bulls have faded the past two weeks, on ideas of a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and amid a quieter geopolitical front.

    In overnight news, there was another potential terror attack in London Sunday when a car rammed a crowd of people and killed at least one. The markets were not impacted by the event.

    European stock markets were supported by French elections Sunday that favored the French centrist president, Macron.Recent elections in the U.K. also saw voters tend to move away from right wing nationalist candidate Theresa May.

    The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly higher on short covering following recent selling pressure. The oil market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trading bear $45.00 a barrel. There continue to be notions of a worldwide oil supply glut that will continue to depress prices for some time to come.

    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.The greenback bears still hold the overall near-term technical advantage as prices last week hit a seven-month low.

    There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday,and it will be a quieter week, overall, for U.S. reports.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, and not far below the contract and record high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,443.50 and then at 2,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,425.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,416.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index September futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 5,728.50 and then at 5,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 5,700.00 and then at the overnight low of 5,683.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S.trading. Prices hit a contract high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 156 5/32 and then at 156 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 19/32 and then at 155 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S.trading. Prices hit a contract high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 127.00.0 and then at the contract high of 127.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.22.0 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 97.000 and then at last week’s high of 97.265. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.500 and then at 96.215.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    July Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low late last week. The bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $46.00 and then at$47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the May low of $44.13 and then at $44.00.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were mixed. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has moderated a bit. Today’s extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt will be critical for price direction in the grains heading into the July Fourth holiday time frame. My bias is that there will be more weather-market volatility in the grain in the coming weeks.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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