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6/1/2017

  • 6/1/2017

    Thursday, June 1 2017

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S. session trading.

    World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S. session trading.

    In overnight news, China saw some downbeat economic data Thursday. The unofficial China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.6 in May versus the forecasts for a reading of 50.1. Meantime, the Euro zone May manufacturing PMI came in at 57.0, which was right in line with market expectations.

    The important “outside markets” on Thursday morning find Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady. The oil market bears have regained downside momentum this week and the bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher today. The greenback bears are still in near-term technical control as dollar index prices are in a nearly three-month-old downtrend.

    Traders and investors are looking forward to Friday’s U.S.employment report for May from the Labor Department. That report is arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number for May is forecast to come in at up around 210,000.

    It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data releases Thursday. Reports include the weekly jobless claims report,the Challenger job cuts report, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending,the ISM manufacturing report on business, the global manufacturing PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, monthly chain store sales, and domestic auto industry sales.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are very close to the contract and record high last set week. The bulls have the strong near-term technical advantage. There are no early technical clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-termmoving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,414.75 and then at 2,425.00.Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,400.00 and then at 2,385.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index September futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit another record and contract high. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage and there are no early chart clues a market top is close at hand. Shorter-term moving averages(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neural early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 5,824.50 and then at 5,850.00.Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 5,770.00 and then at 5,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S.trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s May high of 153 28/32 and then at the contract high of 154 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 153 1/32 and then at this week’s low of 152 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 126.10.0 and then at the contract high of 126.13.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.03.5 and then at this week’s low of 125.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 97.200 and then at this week’s high of 97.480. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 96.660 and then at the May low of 96.500.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    July Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S.trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $49.07 and then at$50.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $47.73 and then at $47.50.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were higher overnight on more short covering. Not much new. Trading remains choppy in corn.Soybeans and wheat are firmly bearish. Weather in the U.S.Corn Belt remains mostly non-threatening at present, which is bearish. But weather in the Corn Belt this time of year can “change on a dime.” It’s going to take a weather scare in the U.S. Corn Belt to jump start any significant rallies in the grains in the coming weeks. The odds are good that a weather scare will develop in the next six weeks.

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