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5/5/2017

  • 5/5/2017

    Friday, May 5 2017

    Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker early Friday morning.

    Global equity markets were mostly weaker overnight. A feature in the marketplace late this week is the steep drop in crude oil prices. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker early Friday morning, but well off the overnight low of $43.76 a barrel, which is a 12.5-month low. Stock and commodity markets are feeling downside pressure late this week as the crude oil market became unhinged. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Fears of slowing economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy and world’s largest raw commodity importer, have also hit the raw commodity sector this week.

    Gold prices are moderately higher in pre-U.S. trading, on some short covering and bargain hunting after prices hit a six-week low on Thursday.

    Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for April from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up around 190,000. Trading could become more active and volatile if the jobs report is a miss from forecasts.

    Traders and investors are also awaiting this weekend’s French presidential elections. A surprise win by the right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen would likely roil many stock and financial markets. However, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron fared pretty well in a televised debate Wednesday,which assuaged European market watchers. Macron is heavily favored to win Sunday’s election. However, big elections on the world stage have not turned out as expected over the past many months.

    The other key outside markets early Friday morning sees the U.S. dollar index trading slightly higher. The green back bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer installment credit report.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hovering just below the contract and record high. The recent “collapse in volatility” in the index makes me suspect a bigger price move is right on the horizon. That big move could come today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,397.25 and then at 2,410.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,375.50 and then at 2,365.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 5,641.75 and then at 5,660.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 5,600.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,573.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S.trading. Market action has been choppy this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today.The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the over night high of 152 4/32 and then at 152 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 151 11/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the over night high of 125.11.0 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 125.02.0 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 99.000 and then at this week’s high of 99.340.Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 98.560 and then at 98.250.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and did spike to a 12.5-month low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $46.00 and then at$47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at$45.00 and then at $44.00.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were mixed to firmer overnight on short covering. Trading has been choppy this week. Corn and soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have lost their momentum late this week, too. My bias is still that market bottoms are in place for the grains heading into the critical planting and growing seasons in the U.S.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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