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5/2/2017

  • 5/2/2017

    Tuesday, May 2 2017

    Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U.S. market trading.

    Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. Corporate earnings reports are presently garnering attention of equities traders. Reports said the Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped to its lowest level in a decade early this week.In technical jargon, this is called a collapse in volatility, which precedes bigger price moves forthcoming.In layman’s terms it’s called the calm before the storm.U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U.S. market trading.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone unemployment rate for Marchwas reported at 9.5%, which is unchanged from the February figure and in line with market expectations.

    The markets’ data-point highlights of the week are the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement, and Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. No change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s FOMC meeting. However, as usual, the wording of the FOMC statement released early Wednesday afternoon will be parsed for any clues on future U.S.monetary policy moves.

    European market watchers are focusing on a debate between French presidential candidates Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Polls show Macron with a comfortable lead but the televised debate could change some voters’ minds.

    The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S.dollar index trading slightly lower. The greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher but the bears have the near-term technical advantage.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hovering not far below the contract and record high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,397.25 and then at 2,410.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,377.00 and then at2,365.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 5,650.00 and then at 5,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 5,600.00 and then at Monday’s low of 5,573.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at152 16/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’slow of 151 21/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.18.0 and then at Monday’s high of 125.25.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 125.10.5 and then at 125.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S.trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 99.240 and then at 99.560. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 98.565 and then at 98.250.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $50.00 and then at last week’s high of $50.22.Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $48.54 and then at last week’s low of$48.20.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Wet conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt and winter wheat regions are bullish.Corn and soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, wheat bulls have gained good upside momentum. My bias is that market bottoms are in place for the grains heading into the critical planting and growing seasons in the U.S.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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