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5/17/2017

  • 5/17/2017

    Wednesday, May 17 2017

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. A feature in the marketplace at mid-week is the slumping U.S. dollar against the major world currencies. The dollar index hit a six-month low over night and has been pressured in part recently by what many trader sand investors see as increasing turmoil in the Trump Administration that could delay or prevent his pro-business and other initiatives from succeeding.

    The latest reports on the Trump turmoil say the U.S.President may have asked the FBI to back off investigating ousted national security advisor Michael Flynn. Up to now,the marketplace had been mostly ignoring the politics in Washington, D.C. However, markets are now thinking Trump could be in some real trouble.

    Gold prices are posting solid gains and hit a two-week high in pre-U.S. day trading, boosted by a faltering U.S. dollar index.

    Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer in early U.S. trading today. Oil bulls still have some upside momentum as Nymex futures prices have rallied around $6.00 a barrel from the May low.

    In other overnight news, the Euro zone April consumer price index came in at up 0.4% from March and up 1.9%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.The annual inflation rate in the Euro zone is now just about what the European Central Bank wants it to be.

    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S.trading, on profit taking. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far below the contract and record high. There are still no early clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s contract high of 2,404.50 and then at 2,425.00.Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Down side support for active traders today is located at the over night low of 2,379.25 and then at 2,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are lower in early U.S.trading, on profit taking after hitting another contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 5,727.25 and then at 5,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 5,683.70 and then at 5,656.50.Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading,on short covering and some safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 11/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 20/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.29.5 and then at 126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125.20.0 and then at the overnight low of 125.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is lower and hit another six-

    month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 98.010 and then at 98.355. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 97.755 and then at 97.500.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    June Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have some upside momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $49.66 and then at $50.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $48.03 and then at$47.50.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, supported by the slumping U.S. dollar. Trading remains choppy to lower in corn and soybeans, while wheat prices are trending solidly lower and are near the recent contract lows. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains non-threatening, which is bearish.Grain market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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