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4/6/2017

  • 4/6/2017

    Thursday, April 6

    Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker

    Thursday

    Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker Thursday, following the U.S. stock indexes’ rapid declines late Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer Thursday morning on some safe-haven demand following the abrupt sell-off in U.S. shares on Wednesday afternoon.

    In overnight news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday the ECB should not yet begin to tighten its monetary policy due to concerns that deflationary price pressures still exist. Draghi’s comments contrast with the latest FOMC minutes, released Wednesday afternoon, that stated the Fed wants to start reducing its balance sheet this year (backing out of its quantitative easing mode).

    Traders and investors will be closely watching the meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies could come into some conflict over trade and currency matters.

    The monthly U.S. employment report is due out Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number was seen coming in at up around 180,000 in March. However, Wednesday’s much-larger-than-expected rise of 263,000 jobs in the March ADP employment report has many ratcheting up their forecasts for the Labor Department’s jobs report on Friday morning.

    The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The greenback bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady after hitting a four-week high Wednesday. The oil bulls have upside technical momentum to suggest prices can at least trade sideways, if not sideways to higher, in the near term.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts report, and monthly chain store sales.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a gentle five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.

    Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 2,366.75 and then at this week’s high of 2,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.

    Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,338.00 and then at 2,325.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are slightly higher. Prices hit a contract and record high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 5,455.00 and then at the contract high of 5,481.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 5,390.00 and then at 5,375.00.

    Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 even and then at this week’s high of 152 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 151 even and then at this week’s low of 150 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.

    Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 125.11.5 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.24.0 and then at 124.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 100.990 and then at 101.250. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 100.235 and then at 100.000.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum to suggest prices can at least trade sideways, or sideways to higher, in the near term. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $51.88 and then at $52.50.

    Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $50.77 and then at $50.00.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Traders will closely monitor this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the corn, soybean and wheat markets. Focus is on U.S. Corn Belt weather. Rains in the forecast much of this week are making traders wonder if there will be corn-planting delays later this month due to soggy fields.

    *  Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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