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4/5/2017

  • 4/5/2017

    OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

    World stock markets were mostly higher Wednesday as higherraw commodity prices, led by crude oil, supported theshares. U.S. stock indexes are set for narrowly mixedopenings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker on a corrective pullback from recentgains.

    Focus of the marketplace Wednesday is on the afternoonrelease of the minutes from the last Federal Open MarketCommittee meeting in mid-March, at which time the Fed raisedinterest rates. Market watchers will examine the minutes forany clues on the timing of future Fed rate increases.

    Wednesday morning’s U.S. national ADP report for March willalso be closely examined. The report is expected to show180,000 jobs were created last month.

    Traders and investors will be closely watching the meetingsbetween U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader XiJinping on Thursday and Friday. The U.S. employment reportis also due out Friday morning.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone’s Markit compositepurchasing managers survey (PMI) rose to 56.4 in March from56.0 in February. The March reading was the highest in sixyears and continues a string of mostly upbeat economic datacoming out of the European Union.

    The key outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S.dollar index near steady. The index has seen a solid reboundfrom a 3.5-month low hit last week and the bulls have theoverall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crudeoil prices are modestly higher and hit a four-week highovernight. The oil bulls have upside technical momentum tosuggest prices can at least trade sideways, if not sidewaysto higher, in the near term.U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes theweekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP nationalemployment report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM non-
    manufacturing report on business, the global services PMI,the FOMC minutes, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocksreport.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in earlyU.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage. However, prices are in a five-week-olddowntrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term movingaverages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day isbelow the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’shigh of 2,366.75 and then at 2,378.00. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. Downside support for activetraders today is located at this week’s low of 2,340.00 andthen at 2,333.50. Sell stops are likely located just belowthose levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are slightly lower on mildprofit taking after hitting a contract and record highMonday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) arebullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutralearly today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen atthe contract high of 5,455.00 and then at 5,475.00. Buystops likely reside just above those levels. On thedownside, short-term support is seen at 5,425.00 and then atMonday’s low of 5,403.25. Sell stops are likely located justbelow those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a two-monthhigh on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is abovethe 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’shigh of 152 13/32 and then at 152 24/32. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at151 even and then at this week’s low of 150 21/32. Sellstops likely reside just below those levels.

    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. tradingafter hitting a 4.5-month high on Tuesday. Shorter-termmoving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is abovethe 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.03.0 andthen at this week’s high of 125.11.5. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. Shorter-term technicalsupport lies at 124.24.0 and then at 124.20.0. Sell stopslikely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is near steady. Prices Tuesdayhit a three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-termtechnical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages forthe dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day isabove the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-daymoving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar indexare neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index findsshorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of100.605 and then at 101.000. Shorter-term support is seen atthis week’s low of 100.235 and then at 100.000. Wyckoff’sIntra Day Market Rating: 5.0

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-weekhigh in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum tosuggest prices can at least trade sideways in the near term.Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistanceat the overnight high of $51.71 and then at $52.00. Look forsell stops just below technical support at the overnight lowof $51.11 and then at $50.00.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, on more shortcovering. The bears still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage in the corn, soybean and wheat markets.Focus is on U.S. Corn Belt weather. Rains in the forecastmuch of this week are making traders wonder if there will becorn-planting delays later this month due to soggy fields.

    *  Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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