Tuesday, April 4
World stock markets were mostly weaker Tuesday. U.S. stock indexes are also set for modestly lower openings when theNew York day session begins. Traders and investors are a bittentative Tuesday, ahead of key events later this week. Theworld marketplace will be closely watching the meetings thisweek between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leaderXi Jinping. FOMC minutes are out Wednesday afternoon and theU.S. employment report is due Friday morning.
Some weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data released Mondayis also putting just a bit of apprehension into the worldmarketplace.
Gold prices are posting decent gains Tuesday, supported inpart by the weaker world equity markets and by Monday’sdownbeat U.S. economic reports.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its retail salesin February were up 0.7% from January and up 1.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were better than the marketplaceexpected.
The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S.dollar index firmer. The index has seen a solid rebound froma 3.5-month low hit last week and the bulls have the slightoverall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crudeoil prices are also modestly higher. The oil bulls have someupside technical momentum to suggest a near-term marketbottom is in place.U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes theweekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail salesreports, the international trade report, the ISM New Yorkreport on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventory,and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are weaker on some mildprofit taking. The bulls still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage. However, prices are in a five-week-olddowntrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term movingaverages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is belowthe 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-termtechnical resistance comes in at last week’s high of2,366.75 and then at 2,378.00. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. Downside support for active traderstoday is located at Monday’s low of 2,340.00 and then at2,333.50. Sell stops are likely located just below thoselevels.
Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are weaker on mild profittaking after hitting a contract and record high Monday.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullishearly today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-termoscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearishearly today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen atthe overnight high of 5,434.75 and then at the contract highof 5,455.00. Buy stops likely reside just above thoselevels. On the downside, short-term support is seen atMonday’s low of 5,403.25 and then at 5,380.00. Sell stopsare likely located just below those levels.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a two-monthhigh on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is abovethe 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s highof 152 12/32 and then at 152 24/32. Buy stops likely residejust above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 152even and then at 151 16/32. Sell stops likely reside justbelow those levels.
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and did hit a4.5-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4-9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day movingaverage is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-daymoving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) areneutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistancelies at 125.10.0 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. Shorter-term technicalsupport lies at 125.00.0 and then at 124.28.0. Sell stopslikely reside just below those levels.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a three-weekhigh in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-termtechnical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages forthe dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day isabove the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-daymoving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar indexare bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-termtechnical resistance at 100.750 and then at 101.000.Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 100.300and then at 100.000.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S.trading. Bulls still have some upside momentum to suggest anear-term market bottom is in place. Look for buy stops toreside just above technical resistance at last week’s highof $50.85 and then at $51.00. Look for sell stops just belowtechnical support at the overnight low of $49.88 and then at$49.00.
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, on more shortcovering. The bears still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage in the corn, soybean and wheat markets.Focus is on U.S. Corn Belt weather. Rains in the forecastmuch of this week are making traders wonder if there will becorn-planting delays later this month due to soggy fields.
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