Thursday, March 30, 2017
Gold prices are weaker again Thursday
Asian shares were weaker overnight, while European stockswere mostly firmer. The Chinese stock market led the Asiandeclines, as China’s central bank continues to squeezeshort-term interest rates higher. China’s government wantsto clamp down on business speculation by tightening itsmoney supply. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestlylower openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are weaker again Thursday on some more profittaking from recent gains that saw prices hit a four-weekhigh earlier this week. The gold market bulls are still ingood shape, technically.
The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S.dollar index higher. The index is seeing a solid reboundfrom a 3.5-month low hit earlier this week and the bullshave gained some technical momentum. Meantime, Nymex crudeoil prices are weaker. The oil bears still have the overallnear-term technical advantage, but the bulls have gainedsome upside momentum this week.U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes theweekly jobless claims report, the final estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, and fourth-quarter corporateprofits data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower. Thebulls have showed some resiliency this week to suggest theymay not be out of gas just yet. The shorter-term movingaverages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is belowthe 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-termtechnical resistance comes in at the overnight high of2,362.50 and then at 2,378.00. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. Downside support for active traderstoday is located at 2,333.50 and then at this week’s low of2,317.75. Sell stops are likely located just below thoselevels.
Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are slightly lower and didhit a new contract and record high overnight. Shorter-termmoving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-termoscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnightcontract high of 5,451.00 and then at 5,475.00. Buy stopslikely reside just above those levels. On the downside,short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5,404.75and then at 5,375.00. Sell stops are likely located justbelow those levels.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) arestill bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is abovethe 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day movingaverage. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutralearly today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen atthis week’s high of 152 3/32 and then at the February highof 152 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above thoselevels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of150 28/32 and then at this week’s low of 150 12/32. Sellstops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’sIntra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) arestill bullish early today. The 4-day moving average isabove the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-daymoving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) areneutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at thisweek’s high of 124.29.5 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stopslikely reside just above those levels. Shorter-termtechnical support lies at the overnight low of 124.14.5 andthen at this week’s low of 124.06.5. Sell stops likelyreside just below those levels.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer again in early U.S.trading, on more short covering after hitting a 4.5-monthlow on Monday. Bulls have gained some near-term technicalmomentum late this week. The shorter-term moving averagesfor the dollar index are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollarindex are bullish early today. The dollar index findsshorter-term technical resistance at 100.280 and then at100.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight lowof 99.800 and then at 99.500.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S.trading. Bulls are having a pretty good week and have someupside momentum. Look for buy stops to reside just abovetechnical resistance at the overnight high of $49.75 andthen at $50.00. Look for sell stops just below technicalsupport at $49.00 and then at $48.50.
Grain futures markets were slightly lower overnight. Traderswill examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.However, traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA plantingintentions report, which is one of the most important USDAgrain reports of the year. Look for very active graintrading Friday after that 11:00 a.m. CDT report.
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