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3/28/2017

  • 3/28/2017

    Global stock markets were mostly firmer Tuesday, on corrective bounces from recent selling pressure. Traders and investors are debating whether the recent downside pressure in stock markets is the end of the “Trump rally” that had been in place since the U.S. president was elected in November. Or, are the recent slides in stock indexes just normal corrective pullbacks in bull markets that still have more room to run? Beneficiaries of the stock markets’ recent declines have been gold and U.S. Treasury prices. Gold prices are weaker Tuesday morning on a downside correction following recent good gains that pushed prices to a four-week high on Monday.

     

    The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher on a technical bounce after scoring a 4.5-month low on Monday. The greenback bears still have some downside technical momentum as prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer, but the bears remain in firm near-term technical control of this market.

     

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, leading economic indicators, S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

     
    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a six-week low Monday. The bears still have some downside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,350.00 and then at 2,356.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,325.00 and then at Monday’s low of 2,317.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 5,400.00 and then at 5,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 5,350.00 and then at the March low of 5,315.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

     
    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 152 3/32 and then at the January high of 152 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 151 even and then at Monday’s low of 150 27/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 124.29.5 and then at the February high of 125.04.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.17.5 and then at Monday’s low of 124.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

     

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a 4.5-month low on Monday. Bears still have some downside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 99.335 and then at 99.500. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 98.865 and then at 98.500.

     
    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $48.28 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $47.80 and then at last week’s low of $47.01.

     
    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grain markets. Traders are awaiting this Friday’s USDA planting intentions report. That is one of the most important USDA grain reports of the year.

     

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

     

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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