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07/17/2017

  • 07/17/2017

    Friday, July 14, 2017

    Nymex crude oil futures firmer and trading above $46.00

    World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight, as the world markets awaited the readings on a heavy batch of U.S. economic reports due out Friday. There are also some earnings reports from big U.S. financial institutions due out today. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are trading firmer in pre-U.S. session trading. While prices are still in a near-term downtrend, the gold bulls this week were able to at least temporarily stop the downside bleeding in their market.

    It is indeed a very busy say for important U.S. economic data Friday. The consumer price index is a headline report. CPI is expected to come in at up 0.1% in June from May. Retail sales data will also be closely scrutinized. Sales in June are seen up 0.1% from May. Also out are industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    The “outside markets” on Friday morning see Nymex crude oil futures firmer and trading above $46.00 a barrel. The oil market bulls have had a good week. A technically bullish weekly high close in Nymex crude oil Friday would suggest a market bottom is in place.

    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. The greenback bears have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a solid price downtrend.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and near the contract and record high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,451.50 and then at 2,465.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 2,422.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,410.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index September futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 5,812.00 and then at 5,852.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 5,777.25 and then at 5,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on more short covering and bargain hunting. Shorter-

    term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 153 even and then at this week’s high of 153 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 152 even and then at last week’s low of 151 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 125.23.5 and then at 125.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.10.5 and then at 125.04.4. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 95.615 and then at 96.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the June low of 95.225 and then at 95.000.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are having the better week. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $47.00 and then at $47.32. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $45.80 and then at $45.00.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were higher overnight, on corrective bounces from strong selling pressure seen the past couple days. There were some scattered rains in the U.S. Corn Belt the past 36 hours. However, hot and dry weather is forecast for the Corn Belt next week—right during corn pollination. Look for continued volatile price action in the grains in the near term as a serious weather market continues to play out.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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