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6/15/2017

  • 6/15/2017

    Thursday, June 15, 2017

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon raised U.S.interest rates by 0.25%

    World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    The news reports late Wednesday that special prosecutor Robert Mueller will investigate U.S. President Donald Trump for obstruction of justice has thrown more uncertainty into the world marketplace.

    Gold prices are solidly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading Thursday. The yellow metal is pressured by the hawkish reading the marketplace gave this week’s FOMC meeting.

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon raised U.S.interest rates by 0.25%, as expected by most. The Fed said it will also fairly aggressively reduce its big balance sheet of government securities in the coming months. The FOMC statement also said U.S. inflationary pressures have eased a bit recently. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen at her press conference sounded a more hawkish tone on inflation.After digesting the FOMC statement and Yellen’s remarks, the marketplace deemed this latest Fed meeting as more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy.

    The Bank of England held its monetary policy meeting Thursday and left interest rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan also held its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. The Swiss National Bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its key interest rate by 0.25% on Thursday.

    The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower, following another bearish weekly U.S. energy stocks report Wednesday. The oil market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices trade well below $50.00 a barrel.Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher and is supported on the more hawkish Fed tone on U.S. monetary policy. The greenback bears hold the firm near-term technical advantage.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at overnight high of 2,434.50 and then at the contract high of 2,443.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,412.50 and then at 2,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index September futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 5,700.00 and then at the overnight high of 5,732.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 5,658.75 and then at last week’s low of 5,643.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract highon Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 31/32 and then at the contract high of 156 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at 154 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.02.0 and then at the contract high of 127.08.0.Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.20.0 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 97.020 and then at last week’s high of 97.225. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 96.515 and then at 96.215.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week low overnight. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $45.00 and then at$46.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the May low of $44.13 and then at $44.00.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were weaker overnight. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is forecast to moderate in the coming days,and there was some decent rainfall in some of the region the past 48 hours. That’s bearish for grains for now. However,it’s only mid-June. My bias is that there will be more weather-market volatility in the grain in the coming weeks.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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