Friday, April 7
The world marketplace is reacting to the surprise U.S.military strike on a Syrian government air base after theSyrian government used poisonous gas on its civilians thisweek. Gold, U.S. Treasuries and oil prices initially shothigher and stock markets sold off. However, the markets havesince settled down and are generally calm as the U.S. daysessions are set to open. Still, there is now keener riskaversion on this last trading day of the week. Traders andinvestors are awaiting the reaction from Russia and anyfollow-up action or comments from the Trump Administration.
Most world stock markets were lower overnight and the U.S.stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openingswhen the U.S. day session begins.
Gold prices hit a five-month high overnight. However, priceshave backed well down from those highs but are still holdinggood gains just ahead of the U.S. day session.
The monthly U.S. employment report is out Friday morning.The key non-farm payrolls number was seen coming in at uparound 180,000 in March. However, Wednesday’s much-larger-than-expected rise of 263,000 jobs in the March ADPemployment report saw many ratchet up their forecasts forthe Labor Department’s jobs report on Friday morning.Markets could become more active in the immediate aftermathof the jobs data.
Traders and investors are closely watching the meetingsbetween U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader XiJinping. The leaders of the world’s two largest economiescould come into some conflict over trade and currencymatters, and on how to deal with North Korea.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone’s housing prices roseat the fastest pace in nine years in the fourth quarter of2016—up 0.8% from the third quarter and up 4.1% from thesame period in 2015.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S.dollar index higher. The greenback bulls have the overallnear-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oilprices are up and hit a four-week high overnight. The oilbulls have upside technical momentum to suggest prices canat least trade sideways, if not sideways to higher, in thenear term. However, the market is now due for a correctivepullback soon.Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes themonthly wholesale trade report and consumer installmentcredit.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in earlyU.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage. However, prices are in a gentle five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-termmoving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-dayis below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’shigh of 2,366.75 and then at this week’s high of 2,375.00.Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downsidesupport for active traders today is located at the overnightlow of 2,336.75 and then at 2,325.00. Sell stops are likelylocated just below those levels.
Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are near steady. Priceshit a contract and record high Wednesday. Shorter-termmoving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-dayaverage is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-termtechnical resistance is seen 5,455.00 and then at thecontract high of 5,481.25. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. On the downside, short-term support isseen at the overnight low of 5,382.75 and then at 5,350.00.Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. tradingand hit a five-month high overnight. Bulls have some upsidetechnical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average isabove the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day movingaverage. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral tobullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance isseen at the overnight high of 152 18/32 and then at 153even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 19/32and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just belowthose levels.June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a five-monthhigh in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day movingaverage is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-daymoving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) areneutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistancelies at the overnight high of 125.18.5 and then at125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of125.02.0 and then at 124.24.0. Sell stops likely residejust below those levels.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading.Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Theshorter-term moving averages for the dollar index arebullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish earlytoday. The dollar index finds shorter-term technicalresistance at this week’s high of 100.990 and then at101.250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight lowof 100.440 and then at this week’s low of 100.235.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-weekhigh in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum tosuggest prices can at least trade sideways, or sideways tohigher, in the near term. Look for buy stops to reside justabove technical resistance at the overnight high of $52.94and then at $53.50. Look for sell stops just below technicalsupport at the overnight low of $51.60 and then at $51.00.
Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. The bears stillhave the overall near-term technical advantage in the corn,soybean and wheat markets. Focus is on U.S. Corn Beltweather. Rains in the forecast much of this week are makingtraders wonder if there will be corn-planting delays laterthis month due to soggy fields.
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