Tuesday, April 11
Gold prices are higher in early morning dealings
World stock markets were again narrowly mixed in more quiettrading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed towardslightly lower openings when the New York day sessionbegins.
Gold prices are higher in early morning dealings, supportedby some geopolitical risks and by a bullish near-termtechnical posture. The U.S.-North Korea tensions andupcoming French presidential elections are creating someanxiety in the world marketplace.
Traders and investors are buzzing about comments made by FedChair Janet Yellen late Monday afternoon. She said theFederal Reserve has stopped using extraordinary measures tostimulate the U.S. economy and is now “allowing it to kindof coast and remain on an even keel.” She also said the Fedis on target to see a 3% Fed funds interest rate in twoyears, from its present rate of 0.75% to 1.0%. WhileYellen’s remarks seemed a bit hawkish, the marketplacealready reckons the Fed is and will be on a tighter monetarypolicy track.
In overnight news, the closely watched German ZEW economicexpectations index came in at 19.5 in April versus 12.8 inMarch. A reading of 14.0 was expected for April.
Euro zone industrial output came in at down 0.3% in Februaryfrom January and up 1.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers wereless than market expectations.
The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S.dollar index weaker on a downside correction after hitting anearly four-week high Monday. The greenback bulls still havethe overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymexcrude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a four-weekhigh overnight. The oil bulls have the overall near-termtechnical advantage.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again lightand includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbookretail sales reports, and the NFIB small business optimismreport.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in earlyU.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage amid recent choppy and sideways trading.The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) areneutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even withthe 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearishearly today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comesin at Monday’s high of 2,363.25 and then at last week’s highof 2,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above thoselevels. Downside support for active traders today is locatedat last week’s low of 2,336.75 and then at 2,325.00. Sellstops are likely located just below those levels.
Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are near steady. Bullsstill have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutralearly today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-termoscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen Monday’s high of5,443.75 and then at 5,460.00. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. On the downside, short-term support isseen at 5,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,382.75.Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading.Bulls have regained some upside momentum early this week.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullishearly today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnighthigh of 152 12/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies atthe overnight low of 151 22/32 and then at Monday’s low of151 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading.Bulls have regained some upside momentum early this week.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullishearly today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of125.06.5 and then at 125.10.0. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies atthe overnight low of 124.28.0 and then at Monday’s low of124.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on a correctivepullback after hitting a four-week high on Monday. Bullshave the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are still bullishearly today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-termoscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearishearly today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technicalresistance at the overnight high of 101.005 and then atMonday’s high of 101.265. Shorter-term support is seen at100.400 and then at 100.000.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and poked toa four-week high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum tosuggest prices can at least trade sideways, if not sidewaysto higher, in the near term. Look for buy stops to residejust above technical resistance at $53.50 and then at$54.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support atthe overnight low of $52.83 and then at Monday’s low of$52.29.
Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Traders willclosely examine today’s monthly USDA supply and demandreport. The bears still have the overall near-term technicaladvantage in the corn, soybean and wheat markets.
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