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5/18/2017

  • 5/18/2017

    Thursday, May 18 2017

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures

    World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on growing tensions in the White House that could cripple the Trump presidency in the coming months, or worse. News that a special counselor has been procured by Congress to investigate Russia’s involvement in the last U.S.presidential election is the latest shoe to drop on a Trump presidency that is now in crisis mode.

    The U.S. stock market sold off sharply Wednesday and had its worst day in several months, following reports Trump asked the just-fired FBI director James Comey to drop his investigation of Trump’s former national security advisor Michael Flynn.

    Many market watchers now fear Trump’s administration is paralyzed and won’t be able to enact its pro-business legislation. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward further losses when the U.S. day session begins Thursday.

    Safe-haven assets gold and U.S. Treasuries have seen their prices spike up on the keen political uncertainty in the U.S. Gold, T-Bond and T-Note futures prices are firmer Thursday morning, following their sharp gains Wednesday.Look for the safe-haven markets to continue to see buying support in the near term. The Trump crisis will not fade anytime soon.

    The U.S. dollar index hit another six-month low overnight and has been pressured in large part recently by the Trump Administration turmoil. Up to this week, the marketplace had been mostly ignoring the politics in Washington, D.C.

    Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower in early U.S.trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent good gains.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey and leading economic indicators.

    U.S. STOCK INDEXES

    S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The bulls are fading fast, to begin to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,367.00 and then at 2,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,344.50 and then at 2,335.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading fast now.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 5,604.75 and then at 5,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 5,550.50 and then at 5,525.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

    U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

    June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading, on more safe-haven demand.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 154 13/32 and then at 155 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 154 even and then at 153 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a six-month high in early U.S. trading. Safe-haven demand is propelling notes. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.23.0 and then at 126.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.16.0 and then at 126.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

    U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

    The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower and hit another six-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 97.675 and then at 98.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 97.275 and then at 97.000.

    NYMEX CRUDE OIL

    June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading.Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $49.13 and then at this week’s high of $49.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $48.00 and then at $47.50.

    GRAINS

    Grain futures markets were lower overnight, pressured by a sharp drop in the value of the Brazilian real. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Trading remains choppy to lower in corn and soybeans, while wheat prices are trending solidly lower.Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains mostly non-threatening, which is also bearish. Grain market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

    * Disclaimer: there is a substantial risk of loss in futures and options trading.

    ** This newsletter was created by a 3rd party and Go Futures does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these contributions and does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, or timeliness of information located within. Use of any information obtained from such sites is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review by qualified experts. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process or service does not constitute or imply endorsement.

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